by Lance Thompson

I am not a political strategist or campaign operative. But some mystifying moves by John McCain in this marathon campaign are coming into clearer focus, and could be effective calculated politics.

John McCain severely criticized North Carolina GOP chairman Linda Daves for an ad that linked two Democrat gubernatorial candidates who endorsed Barack Obama to the traitorous sermons of Reverend Wright. John McCain has been quoted as saying Hillary Clinton would make a good president. John McCain has largely refused to attack or criticize either of the Democrats who are vying for the chance to run against him. John McCain has refused to mollify conservatives in his own party by offering any indication that he’s leaning toward any of his conservative primary opponents.

The Democrats are headed for a bitter primary showdown, whoever prevails. McCain need do nothing to stir the pot on that score. But if Obama gets the nomination, voters in Florida and Michigan may feel disenfranchised, and Hillary stalwarts as well as recent Clinton converts will feel cheated. If it’s Clinton at the top of the ticket, Obama’s supporters will feel like the nomination was stolen, and none will feel this more sharply than black Democrat voters.

McCain, whose appeal to the moderates and independents is greater than any Republican since Reagan, could then name a running mate who might appeal to the disaffected in the other party. To accomplish this goal, McCain should choose for his running mate a conservative black Republican, such as Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice, Maryland’s ex-lieutenant governor Michael Steele or Ohio’s ex-treasurer and secretary of state Ken Blackwell.

If Obama is the nominee, a black running mate for McCain reduces Obama’s novelty, gives race-priority voters an alternative, and demonstrates that, contrary to popular opinion, there really are black conservatives.

If Hillary is the nominee, then black Democrat voters will have the choice of voting for a black Republican or the white Democrat who stole the nomination from their own candidate. Of course, Hillary might try to innoculate herself from the backlash by choosing her own black running mate or even wooing Obama himself, but neither would make up for taking the nomination from Obama in the minds of his supporters.

A black conservative would bolster McCain’s ties to the large percentage of conservatives who still don’t trust him, while also burnishing his popularity with moderates of both parties.

A black conservative on the presidential ticket would also show that the black vote is not a solid bloc, that attitudes and issues differ as widely among black voters as among any other group. And it might remind voters that the last Republican administration had two Secretaries of State, both black. Colin Powell and Concoleezza Rice have proven that opportunity for blacks exist in both parties.

Recent shifts in momentum toward Hillary portend a combative end to the Democrats’ primary season. The Democrats will be lucky if the only result is hard feelings. By choosing a conservative black running mate, McCain could attract the disaffected, the moderates, and the conservatives. This year, those groups constitute a clear majority.

Lance Thompson
208-898-1451
lancet@q.com